2026-10-13
2023-01-012026-10-13
1,382 trading days, one plot each. A winning day raises a building as tall as its return; flat days stay empty, losing days sink below ground.
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Discrete Alpha Program
Extracting real, repeatable edge from the market
A long/short Bitcoin strategy built on statistical edge in order flow.
- Annualized return
- +493%
- Max drawdown
- −23%
- Positive months
- 39 / 46
- Value of $10,000 invested Jan 2023
- $8,402,756
Bitcoin, same period: −54%
01 / Discrete Alpha
8,760 hours in a year.Only a handful are entries.
- Discrete
- We act only at the moments an edge appears.
- Alpha
- Every entry carries a positive expected value.
No entryEntry
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Each cell is one hour, left to right and top to bottom, for a full year.
02 / Strategy
From over a hundred data streams to a single position
xi(t), i = 1, …, N
Over a hundred raw data streams enter the system in parallel.
h(ℓ+1) = 𝒯ℓ(h(ℓ), h(<ℓ))
Each layer performs one computation; with each layer the data gets smaller and the information denser.
Layer by layer, the results aggregate into decision data, which then converge to a single point.
Sj = Φj(yt)
Decision data generates the signal, expressed as ten input dimensions.
(S1, …, S9, r) ↦ q
Ten dimensions plus the position make an 11-dimensional space. The market is first classified into one of several regimes, each with its own parameter set; within a regime, the position is set jointly by signal strength, the adaptive dimension and multiple constraints.
Dimensions used by each regime
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX Regime I ● ● ○ ■ ■ Regime II ○ ● ● ■ Regime III ■ ■ ■ ● Signal strength○ Adaptive■ Conditions and constraints
bk = βk(S; rt)
Grouped by regime, the ten dimensions feed five positioning rules, then pass through separate long and short constraints.
q = π(b; Θ)
Through the 11-dimensional algorithm and regime switching, one decision remains: how large the position should be.
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03 / Performance
Stepped NAV
NAV stays flat most of the time and steps up only when an edge appears. One dataset, three views.
2026-10-13
2023-01-012026-10-13
2x leverage, from January 2023. 39 of 46 months positive, worst month −8.8%; monthly correlation with Bitcoin only 0.19.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Full year | Bitcoin, full year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | +44.4% | +7.1% | +132.8% | +22.6% | +7.9% | +9.4% | −0.1% | +11.2% | +2.5% | +20.0% | −0.5% | +41.4% | +901% | +156% |
| 2024 | +35.9% | +7.8% | +84.5% | +12.9% | +12.3% | +4.3% | −8.8% | +38.3% | +14.7% | −1.0% | +14.0% | +6.7% | +523% | +121% |
| 2025 | +29.9% | +10.5% | +63.9% | +13.6% | +0.3% | +7.4% | −0.0% | +2.8% | −5.1% | +11.9% | +27.7% | +34.7% | +441% | −6% |
| 2026 | +1.7% | +53.4% | +28.8% | +1.4% | +0.8% | −7.6% | +13.4% | +8.4% | +0.8% | +6.2% | +149% | −5% |
| Month | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | +44.4% | +35.9% | +29.9% | +1.7% |
| Feb | +7.1% | +7.8% | +10.5% | +53.4% |
| Mar | +132.8% | +84.5% | +63.9% | +28.8% |
| Apr | +22.6% | +12.9% | +13.6% | +1.4% |
| May | +7.9% | +12.3% | +0.3% | +0.8% |
| Jun | +9.4% | +4.3% | +7.4% | −7.6% |
| Jul | −0.1% | −8.8% | −0.0% | +13.4% |
| Aug | +11.2% | +38.3% | +2.8% | +8.4% |
| Sep | +2.5% | +14.7% | −5.1% | +0.8% |
| Oct | +20.0% | −1.0% | +11.9% | +6.2% |
| Nov | −0.5% | +14.0% | +27.7% | |
| Dec | +41.4% | +6.7% | +34.7% | |
| Full year | +901% | +523% | +441% | +149% |
| Bitcoin, full year | +156% | +121% | −6% | −5% |
October 2026 is month-to-date through 13 October. Monthly returns compound month-end NAV.
Key metrics
- +493%
- Annualized return
- 57%
- Annualized volatility
- 3.43
- Sharpe ratio
- 4.73
- Sortino ratio
- 21.1
- Calmar ratio
- −23%
- Max drawdown
- 85%
- Monthly win rate
- +133%
- Best month
- −8.8%
- Worst month
- 0.19
- Bitcoin correlation
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino use daily returns (365 days a year, zero risk-free rate); Calmar = annualized return ÷ max drawdown.
2x leverage, $10,000 invested January 2023, as of 2026-10-13 UTC. The gray line is $10,000 held in Bitcoin.
04 / Team
Research team
Our team studied at UC Berkeley, Imperial College London, UC Irvine and Stanford, primarily in computer science, with backgrounds in physics, mathematics, statistics and artificial intelligence.
- 01University of California, BerkeleyUC Berkeley
- 02Imperial College LondonImperial
- 03University of California, IrvineUC Irvine
- 04Stanford UniversityStanford